The Certitude of the Religious

  • David French asks and tries to explain why Christians are so cruel;
  • David Brooks writes about his experience of faith;
  • And Kurt Gray about misunderstanding human nature.
– – –

Of course I’m sure they would deny this. Passing the truth along to other people, even imposing it on them, isn’t cruel, it’s kind, to their way of thinking. This is what all the missionaries thought, and still think.

NY Times, Opinion by David French, 22 Dec 2024: Why Are So Many Christians So Cruel?

Here’s a question I hear everywhere I go, including from fellow Christians: Why are so many Christians so cruel?

I can’t tell you the number of times I’ve heard someone say something like: I’ve experienced blowback in the secular world, but nothing prepared me for church hate. Christian believers can be especially angry and even sometimes vicious.

It’s a simple question with a complicated answer, but that answer often begins with a particularly seductive temptation, one common to people of all faiths: that the faithful, those who possess eternal truth, are entitled to rule. Under this construct, might makes right, and right deserves might.

Which is sorta what I said above, going in.

It begins with the idea that if you believe your ideas are just and right, then it’s a problem for everyone if you’re not in charge.


The practical objections to this mind-set are legion. How can we be so certain of our own righteousness? Even if we are right or have a superior vision of justice compared with our opponents, the quest for power can override the quest for justice.

The historical examples are too numerous to list. Give a man a sword and tell him he’s defending the cross, and there’s no end to the damage he can do.

And then French, who is devout himself, goes on discussing Jesus and what he said according to the Bible. As I’ve long noted, most Christians behave quite differently than how Jesus advised them to behave. After reflecting on Christmas, French concludes,

It’s remarkable how often ambition becomes cruelty. In our self-delusion, we persuade ourselves that we’re not just right but that we’re so clearly right that opposition has to be rooted in arrogance and evil. We lash out. We seek to silence and destroy our enemies.

But it is all for the public good. So we sleep well at night. We become one of the most dangerous kinds of people — a cruel person with a clean conscience.

The way of Christ, by contrast, forecloses cruelty. It requires compassion. It inverts our moral compass, or at least it should. We love rags-to-riches stories, for example, so if many of us were writing Christ’s story, we might begin with a manger, but we’d end with a throne.

But Christ’s life began in a manger, and it ended on a cross. He warned his followers that a cross could come for them as well. An upside-down kingdom began with an upside-down birth. When Jesus himself is humble, how do we justify our pride?

Yes yes. This strikes me another example of the endless tortured reasoning the faithful engage in to justify their faith no matter based it is on sand, and no matter what the modern-day consequences.

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For another example, the lead piece in today’s NY Times Opinion section is this.

NY Times, Opinion by David Brooks, 19 Dec 2024: The Shock of Faith: It’s Nothing Like I Thought It Would Be

I tried reading this, then skimmed. Here’s the gist, near the beginning:

When faith finally tiptoed into my life it didn’t come through information or persuasion but, at least at first, through numinous experiences. These are the scattered moments of awe and wonder that wash over most of us unexpectedly from time to time. Looking back over the decades, I remember rare transcendent moments at the foot of a mountain in New England at dawn, at Chartres Cathedral in France, looking at images of the distant universe or of a baby in the womb. In those moments, you have a sense that you are in the presence of something overwhelming, mysterious. Time is suspended or at least blurs. One is enveloped by an enormous bliss.

That is, this is nothing about understanding reality, this is all about random emotional moments and the openness of human psychology to narrative, and how these random moments must *mean* something. The experience of the universe must *mean* something in human terms.

Brooks’ piece goes on and on.

In complete contrast, of course, is the approach to life by philosophers and scientists and adults (per yesterday’s post) who have come to understand that the universe works in ways different from human ideas of “meaning.” They do not possess the self-righteousness that the religious do; they are not so sure of things; they are endlessly open to new experiences and to changing their minds. They do not pass laws imposing their views on others. And they do not launch religious wars.

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Another NYT opinion piece today.

NY Times, Kurt Gray, 22 Dec 2024: We’ve Misunderstood Human Nature for 100 Years

I think the takeaway here is the presumption of the writer’s “we.” Here’s the thing about a lot of coverage in the mass media about scientific topics: they present isolated topics without any context. This essay — granted, it’s adapted from the writer’s forthcoming book, which perhaps provides more context — focuses on:

One day in the summer of 1924, an anthropologist named Raymond Dart made an incredible discovery — and drew a conclusion from it about human nature that would mislead us for a century.

Dart was examining a set of fossils that had been unearthed by miners near the town of Taung in South Africa when he found the skull of a “missing link” between ancient apes and humans. It belonged to a juvenile member of the species Australopithecus africanus who was later nicknamed the Taung Child.

The skull conclusively demonstrated that Africa was the birthplace of humankind. It also seemed to reveal something sinister about human nature: There was a series of grooves etched in the bone, which Dart believed could be produced only by human-made tools. These marks convinced him that this young hominid had been butchered and eaten by another member of its tribe (perhaps a hungry uncle).

Our ancestors, Dart concluded, were cannibalistic killers. He argued that Australopithecus africanus represented a “predatory transition” in which our ancestors evolved from eating plants and fruits to devouring meat — and one another.

And how this became scientific consensus, as reflected in LORD OF THE FLIES and even 2001: A SPACE ODYSSEY.

There is a glaring problem, however, with the widespread assumption that humans are predators by nature: It’s wrong.

Or at least incomplete; after all, it was based on a single study. In some context, yes perhaps some people still think humans are basically ruthless killers. But the study of human psychology has evolved to encompass so much more. Whereas once the invention of tools was regarded as the key point in humanity’s evolution (thus the opening of 2001), recent thinkers have identified the idea of cooperation in large groups as being key. That led to tribalism, which served its function for hundreds of thousands, even millions, of years, but which is now undercutting our species’ ability to cooperate on a global, or even national, level.

“We’ve understood” is wrong. Lots of modern writers and thinkers have already thought this issue through more deeply. (Update: actually it could be merely the headline writer’s error. Writers don’t usually write their own headlines.)

Posted in Human Nature, Religion | Leave a comment

Children, Adults Who Think Like Children, and Adults Who Don’t

  • Trump doesn’t need to keep his promises because he’ll just claim that he has, and blame his enemies when it’s obvious he has not;
  • How the threat of government shutdown reveals the Republicans as the party of “no”, recalling William F. Buckley;
  • In Louisiana, don’t say vaccine;
  • How to reduce crime via proven solutions, and not prayer.
– – –

 

NY Times, Frank Bruni, 19 Dec 2024: What if Trump Doesn’t Need to Keep Any of His Promises?

Short answer: all Trump has to do is tell his fans that he *has* kept his promises, and they’ll believe him. After all, they don’t trust the mainstream media, or government statistics, so how are they to know? If grocery prices go up, Trump will find some way to blame Biden, or the deep state. This sort of thing could go on for quite a while. But indefinitely? And what will happen when Trump has had enough of Musk running the show? Bruni:

No president in my lifetime has been elected in such a corrupted information environment, and no president has so shamelessly participated in its corruption.

If Trump fails by established metrics, he’ll declare those metrics bogus and delegitimize the experts and agencies that calculate them. And there’ll be no shortage of partisan players in the Babel of news media and social media to support him in that scheme. We saw that when they indulged his lies after the 2020 election. They’ve grown only more submissive since.

If Americans under Trump are demonstrably and undeniably hurting as much as they were under President Biden, he’ll weave stories and hurl accusations that absolve him of responsibility and assign it to his political foes. And he’ll find many more takers than he would have before we could all customize the reports we receive so that our designated heroes remain unblemished, our appointed villains irredeemable, our biases affirmed.

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Just say no.

Washington Post, Megan McArdle, 20 Dec 2024: Republicans’ obsession with saying ‘no’ will get them nowhere, subtitled “The GOP’s latest flirtation with a government shutdown shows the lack of a meaningful agenda.”

Every great nation has its great romantic tragedies, those star-crossed lovers who succumb to reckless passion, heedless of convention or personal cost. Ancient Rome had Antony and Cleopatra. France had Napoleon and Josephine. And modern America has the Republican Party’s helpless, hopeless love affair with shutting down the government.

As with all great loves, their fervor is wholly irrational. Shutdowns annoy voters, who tend to blame Republicans for that annoyance. Nor does it save any appreciable amount of money, because the major entitlement programs keep rolling out checks, and the furloughed federal workers eventually collect back pay for the time they spent twiddling their thumbs. As for using a shutdown as a political bargaining chip … well, as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) told reporters last year, “They never have produced a policy change, and they’ve always been a loser for Republicans politically.”

Why, then, do Republicans keep flirting with this destructive, abusive old flame? Because too many Republicans haven’t grasped a basic political lesson: In the game of politics, it is not enough for your enemies to lose. You actually have to win.

Try to think back to the last time the Republican Party had an agenda that didn’t boil down to “no”? It’s pretty difficult, isn’t it?

As William F. Buckley once said, conservatives are those who simply want to stop history. They’re comfortable with they learned as a child (i.e. what their religion taught them). And they would deeply prefer that everyone not bother them with any inconvenient facts about the world or the other people in it that would challenge those verities and oblige them to possibly, oh however inconveniently, change their minds. The horror. They would remain, in some intellectual sense, children forever. Perhaps adults who manage to think past childhood myths are to adults who don’t, as those adults are to children. I should write this down.

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In Florida, it’s Don’t Say Gay. Now in Louisiana, it’s Don’t Say Vaccine.

NPR, from Morning Edition, 20 Dec 2024 (via): Louisiana forbids public health workers from promoting COVID, flu and mpox shots

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Faith vs. Reality.

OnlySky, Phil Zuckerman, 19 Dec 2024: Reducing crime in the coming years is easy—and we actually know how

The article’s subtitle gives away its premise: “Will the future include more or less violent crime? It depends on whether we rely on prayer, as many politicians are suggesting, or apply proven solutions.”

In the Middle Ages, in the villages and hamlets of Northern Europe, when a spate of violent crime would erupt, local chieftains and magistrates would call for “roaming prayer groups” to combat the societal scourge.

Nah, just kidding. That’s Republican leaders spitballing in the here and now.

Take for example former Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin, who once put forth a “plan” to fight an uptick in crime by having faith leaders walk corner to corner in 10-block sections of various neighborhoods and pray. Yep. Two to three times a week was determined to be the most effective frequency.

As the good governor tweeted: “Prayer WILL change things.”

No, it won’t. Grow up; acknowledge reality. Such as.

Study after study over the course of a half-century or more has demonstrated the ways in which positive, active engagement with vulnerable populations can significantly reduce crime.

Then follow examples of social programs that helped people, the kind of things conservatives are against.

There are so many more such programs out there, not just within the United States, but around the world, that focus on vulnerable populations, provide them with supportive help, and thereby effectively decrease overall criminal activity. Such programs certainly cost money, but they are much cheaper and more cost-effective than not having them. Indeed, it is much more efficient, to say nothing of being more humane, to invest in preventative social welfare programs than to build and staff prisons.

The writer concludes,

It’s pretty easy to understand how much of this works: when people live in poverty and do not have jobs or good job prospects, when vocational training is scarce, when they can’t get a good education, when they can’t afford decent housing, when they don’t have access to health care, when they feel a deep sense of hopelessness — all of this breeds despair, humiliation, and shame. And this in turn creates unstable homes wracked with frustration, anger, and violence. Add drugs and alcohol into the mix, and things only gets worse. Such households are more likely to produce children who – experiencing insecurity, abuse, and neglect — are much more likely to become violent and criminally-involved as they grow up. It is thus no coincidence that nearly all of the states with the highest murder rates – such as Louisiana, Alabama, Missouri, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas – also tend to have the highest poverty rates.

To reduce violent crime, reduce poverty and inequality by providing health care, quality education, job training, affordable housing, and a variety of needed social services for all. Do this, and violent crime will plummet.

No prayers needed, no gods required.

 

Posted in Conservative Resistance, Politics, Psychology, Religion | Leave a comment

So Are We to Live in an Authoritarian Oligarchy?

  • The un-elected Elon Musk seems to be running the country this week;
  • How the Drone Panic reveals a need to believe, in *something*.

So not only is our incipient administration authoritarian, it’s authoritarian and being run by an oligarch!

NY Times, 19 Dec 2024: Elon Musk Flexes His Political Strength as Government Shutdown Looms, subtitled “The world’s richest man led the charge to kill a bipartisan spending deal, in part by promoting false and misleading claims about it.”

Wielding the social media platform he purchased for $44 billion in 2022, Mr. Musk detonated a rhetorical nuclear bomb in the middle of government shutdown negotiations on Capitol Hill.

In more than 150 separate posts on X, starting before dawn on Wednesday, Mr. Musk demanded that Republicans back away from a bipartisan spending deal that was meant to avoid a government shutdown over Christmas. He vowed political retribution against anyone voting for the sprawling bill backed by House Speaker Mike Johnson, who called Mr. Musk on Wednesday to ask that he stop posting about the bill.

So let’s see now, Republicans have already rolled over to show their bellies to Trump — or “obeying in advance,” as outgoing FBI Director Christopher Wray did by resigning early, and as Timothy Snyder warned people not to do under a tyrannical government, in his book — now we have them kowtowing to the unelected Elon Musk, who happens to be the world’s richest man, and buddy with Donald Trump, at least for now. Trump doesn’t take office for another month, but Musk is pulling the strings to determine what kind of budget agreement Congress will reach. With the implied threat that anyone who doesn’t comply will face “primarying” by political opponents financed by Musk! Is this what the US has come to? (The part about “false and misleading claims” is the least surprising aspect of this story.)

Somehow, just this afternoon, a budget agreement was reached anyway. I haven’t read the details.

More on this:

The Atlantic, Charles Sykes, 19 Dec 2024: The GOP Is Treating Musk Like He’s in Charge, subtitled “This week, the world’s richest person solidified his influence over American politics.”

Robert Reich, 20 Dec 2024: The American oligarchy is back, and it’s out of control, subtitled “It’s the third time in the nation’s history that a small group of hyper-wealthy people have gained political power over the rest of us. Here’s what we must do.”

(What were the first two times? First: “Many of the men who founded America were slaveholding white oligarchs.” Second: “A century later a new American oligarchy emerged comprised of men who amassed fortunes through their railroad, steel, oil, and financial empires — men such as J. Pierpont Morgan, John D. Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie, Cornelius Vanderbilt, and Andrew Mellon. It was called the Gilded Age.”)

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Oh, and this:

Salon, Nicholas Liu, 20 Dec 2024: Elon Musk throws his support behind Germany’s extremist far-right, subtitled “Alternative for Germany (AfD) is performing strongly in polls leading up to a Feb. 2025 election”

It’s become a cliche to compare Trump to Hitler, but how much more evidence do we need to see the affinity between Trump and his pals and the extreme xenophobic right of Hitler’s regime, that demonized outsiders and talked constantly of returning to a glorious past by expelling the vermin from society?

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Once more about the drones, because this phenomenon reveals more about human psychology.

Slate, Molly Olmstead, 20 Dec 2024: Close Encounters of the Drone Kind, subtitled “Why so many Americans think space aliens are flying over New Jersey.”

(Note that Slate categorizes this piece as “Faith-Based.”) One point that occurred to me as I read this piece is that politicians aren’t allowed to be smarter or more savvy than their constituents; they can’t come out say these are all just airplanes or mistakes of some kind. They’d be voted out of office. Still,

Sensing the rising public interest, lawmakers have gotten in on the discourse as well: Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, for example, posted a video of distant lights—which seem to just be the constellation Orion—and complained that the federal government was not taking drone sightings seriously enough. “The American people deserve answers and action now,” he wrote. New Jersey Rep. Jeff Van Drew boldly speculated that they could be from an Iranian “mothership.” Donald Trump referenced the drones in a crude joke about the former governor of New Jersey.

The only realm of speculation politicians are staying away from? Extraterrestrials.

But more and more citizens *are* talking about it.

According to Christopher Bader, a sociology professor at Chapman University who has polled Americans on their belief in the paranormal, some 35 percent of Americans believe that aliens have visited the Earth in modern times, and about a quarter of the population believes that at least some UFO sightings are extraterrestrial in origin. That number is well above where it was a couple of decades ago: A 1996 poll from Newsweek found only 20 percent of Americans were inclined to believe in alien UFOs; a Baylor religion survey in 2005 similarly found only 24 percent of people did. And Bader’s data isn’t an outlier: A Pew survey from 2021 found that more than 50 percent of people polled believed that “UFOs reported by people in the military are likely evidence of intelligent life outside Earth.”

That trend is not just about aliens. Overall, Americans are coming to embrace the paranormal in a multitude of ways. Bader’s polling found that a majority of Americans believe in hauntings—a 16-point increase from 2005—and belief in psychic powers, while still relatively low, has roughly doubled in the past 15 years or so. These beliefs, he said, have been slowly but steadily growing.

And here’s the key psychological point:

As Bader sees it, one of the main reasons behind the general American embrace of the strange and paranormal is the long-running and steady decline of religious institutions. Churches, he said, can often serve as a kind of dampener on paranormal beliefs: Part of the role of a denomination is to lay out a particular creed. That creed may be supernatural—God, after all, is beyond the realm of scientific proof—but institutional religious doctrine does not usually include any mentions of space aliens.

Now that fewer and fewer people attend religious services, “it’s common in surveys to find someone who says, ‘I believe Jesus is the one and only son of God, and also my house is haunted, and there might be a Bigfoot,’ ” Bader said. “People didn’t use to believe all those things. Churches would say, ‘Here is the correct package of supernatural beliefs you’re allowed to hold.’ ”

This was the key point, IIRC, in a book I read some years ago by Nicholas Humphrey, Leaps of Faith: Science, Miracles, and the Search for Supernatural Consolation. Note the subtitle. (I have the hardcover, but this link for the trade paperback shows the subtitle better.) As science has eroded the plausibility of traditional religious beliefs, people search for something else to fill that “god-shaped hole” in the mind, as some speak of it. And so they turn to the supernatural. No matter how implausible those beliefs are, given science; but they don’t know science.

Another key sociological point:

There’s a common misconception, he said, that Americans are becoming godless secularists; the reality, instead, is that Americans are leaving organized religion in droves but remaining believers, in some way or another. Many Americans who abandon their parents’ old denominations still pray, still believe in an afterlife, still believe in something beyond the physical world. Actual atheism remains quite rare—atheists are only about 5 percent of the population, according to Pew survey data. And committed atheists tend to be pretty skeptical when it comes to paranormal matters. But the vast middle category of spiritual or casually religious Americans are much more open.

But many of the “New Jersey drone speculators” are just paranoid. With examples of comments from MAGA crazies. Concluding:

What does it all add up to? The American response to unexplained aerial phenomena is clarifying—not about what’s in the sky, but for who we are: mistrustful people, lovers of the paranormal, eclectic in our beliefs, and trigger-happy (in word if not in deed). The New Jersey drone mystery may or may not get a clear explanation. But it has already told us something important about ourselves.

Posted in Conservative Resistance, Politics, Psychology, Religion, Supernatural | Leave a comment

Psychological Underpinnings

  • The drone panic is about human psychology;
  • So is the fear of vaccines.
– – –

 

Once again, the drone panic is not about drones.

NY Times, Zeynep Tufekci, 19 Dec 2024: How to Make the Drone Panic So Very Much Worse

The writer begins by recalling a similar panic from decades ago that I only recently heard about.

In 1954, a few people in the town of Bellingham, Wash., reported seeing pits and dings on their windshields — perhaps the work of vandals. Roadblocks were quickly set up. This became front-page news in nearby Seattle, prompting people to rush to check their own windshields. Thousands then reported that they, too, had mysterious dings, in an ever-widening area from Seattle to Vancouver, British Columbia.

Panic quickly spread. People speculated that the cause might be cosmic rays, a radio transmitter in a nearby naval base, fallout from H-bomb tests or sand-flea eggs hatching in windshields. The mayor of Seattle begged for help from the governor and the White House. Motorists began stopping police cars to add their name to the list of the affected. Scientists were called in, Geiger counters whipped out.

The mysterious windshield pits of 1954 turned out not to be the result of vandals, aliens, radioactivity or sand fleas, but were instead the domain of mass human psychology. Examinations revealed that these were mundane, long-present imperfections, everyday wear and tear. It’s just that no one had bothered to notice them before, because who studies his windshield that closely?

A similar dynamic is playing out right now under the New Jersey sky. Dozens, maybe hundreds, of drone sightings have sent people in the area and far beyond into a state of high alarm.

And the government authorities are responding in the wrong way.

Experts have been pulling their hair out trying to explain that they aren’t a cause for alarm, they’re the result of it. Because those unidentified objects are planes. Airplanes. Landing and taking off at Newark, one of the busiest airports in the country. Or they’re hobby drones that other amateur sleuths have sent up to get a glimpse of the phenomenon. Or they’re celestial bodies. Atmospheric scientists took a look at the lights that Hogan had spotted and quickly identified them as stars in the Orion constellation.

People find the simple explanation hard to believe for the same reason that people in Seattle did in 1954: because they had never before bothered to look that closely.

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Similarly, perhaps. What is the root cause for conservatives’ distrust of vaccines?

LA Times, Robin Abcarian, 18 Dec 2024: Column: The latest evidence that putting RFK Jr. in charge of public health would be a disaster

The photo shows an iron lung, the treatment of polio victims in the decades before the vaccine virtually eliminated polio. But now…

Last week, the New York Times reported that in 2022, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s attorney and close advisor Aaron Siri had petitioned the Food and Drug Administration to revoke approval of the polio vaccine in use for the last three decades until its safety can be studied further against an unvaccinated control group. Kennedy, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for Health and Human Services secretary, is a longtime vaccine skeptic who spouts nonsense about the safety and efficacy of vaccines and a lot of other things. He is, in the view of many medical professionals, a danger to public health.

The naivete and presumption of this request is astonishing. Until the vaccine can be “studied further”? As if no one has thought to do such studies before, over decades and decades? This is the peril of putting numbskulls in charge of branches of government they know nothing about.

The Times’ report set off shock waves. Before Jonas Salk developed the first successful polio vaccine in the mid-1950s, the disease killed or paralyzed more than half a million people around the world each year. Many high-profile Americans who suffered from childhood polio, including Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell and the actor Mia Farrow, immediately condemned the questioning of the vaccine. Kennedy and Trump were forced to reassure Americans that they support the lifesaving treatment.

And my high school AP English teacher (and college guidance counselor) Mr. Friedman, who’d survived polio but walked with a limp.

The article moves on to the autism question, which has been “studied to death”:

“Do we know what causes autism? Not yet,” [pediatrician Richard] Pan said. But, he added, we do know what does not cause autism: the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine, which was implicated in a long-since-discredited 1998 paper based on 12 cases by the defrocked English physician Andrew Wakefield.

“What will it take to convince Trump and RFK Jr. that a retracted 12-subject study with fake data was actually wrong?” asked Pan.

And there’s this issue:

In any case, he added, blaming the vaccine is an “ableist” response to autism by some parents. “They don’t want to accept that their child is neurodivergent,” Pan said. “You want to say your child is broken and my life has been ruined and it’s the fault of Big Pharma or whoever.”

Again: being autistic is a facet of a person’s personality, like being smart or musical; it is not a disease that people “got” somehow. And parents of course would ideally raise children to be just like themselves. You can understand them casting about for something to blame if their children are different from themselves.

But the answer to the question I posed above? Simply refer to Jonathan Haidt’s moral foundations theory (discussed here and elsewhere), in which one facet of morality is the divide between sanctity and degradation. It’s all about fear of contamination. And it makes perfect sense in the ancestral environment — actually it makes perfect sense for all animals to have a sense of what is safe to eat and what should be avoided (all the disgusting things, which we perceive as disgusting precisely for the reason that they are unsafe, from dead animals to feces).

So the answer is: conservatives fear contamination, and vaccines involve injecting something foreign into the body. And for some people, no matter how much you explain it to them, they can’t get over the idea that injecting something into the body is some kind of contamination. And that’s why, to justify their fears, conservatives pass along stories about how mercury is involved in making vaccines, and QED! With no understanding of how these things actually work.

In the big picture, humanity’s cognitive limitations may bring down the species. Just as most species in the history of the world have gone extinct, mostly because of environmental changes, humanity might suffer the same fate because of our current environmental change: we’re filling up the world. And need new policies to keep the species alive.

Posted in Politics, Psychology | Leave a comment

Tim Urban, Out of Left Field

  • About a writer I’d never heard of, Tim Urban, and his book, and their connection to Luigi Mangione;
  • The psychological motivations of the drone alarmists.
– – –

NY Times, David Wallace-Wells, 18 Dec 2024: Can Anyone Make Sense of Luigi Mangione? Maybe His Favorite Writer. (gift link)

Luigi Mangione of course is the guy implicated in the murder of the UnitedHealthcare CEO in New York City a few weeks ago. So who would his favorite writer be? Ayn Rand? Well probably not. Who then? Tim Urban. Who? According to this interview by Wallace-Wells he’s a “popular blogger, essayist and author of the website Wait but Why and a 2023 book dilating on the problems of uncivil political discourse, called ‘What’s Our Problem?'” And an old friend of the interviewer (whose book on the future of climate change I reviewed here).

Urban doesn’t know why Mangione would have liked his book, and wonders if he misunderstood it. So what it his book about? Urban:

If I had to sum up the essence of my book, it’s a reminder of why liberalism is good — the kind of liberalism that Martin Luther King Jr. was talking about when he said that the founding fathers wrote a promissory note and check bounced. I think of it as a house that we’re all living in. Inside the house you have progressives and conservatives and you have far right and far left, and you have centrists and you have libertarians, and you’ve got all kinds of people and they’re sitting there arguing, but we all agree the house is good. But the house isn’t in perfect condition — this door isn’t working the way it’s supposed to, the heating isn’t working, let’s fix it. And some people argue: That’s not how you fix the house, or it’s working fine, or it’s not working fine for me. This is what’s going on inside the house, and that’s great — that’s liberalism. Fight about the house and over time the house gets better. And then there are movements that I see as outside the house, with wrecking balls. And their movement is, let’s break the house.

And the point of the book isn’t that you should never be mad at the health care industry — it’s that the house’s liberal nonviolent tools have historically been the most effective way to fix things. Granted, I’m sure people who hate the health industry are saying, “Where’s the change? We’ve been trying and it’s still awful.” And that may be true. But when you use political violence, what you’re doing is you’re trying to fix something in the house while smashing through one of the house’s support beams. And if you keep doing that, now someone else will assassinate someone on your side, and before you know it, it’s the road to hell.

And this exchange (between Wallace-Wells and Urban):

But if we’re taking this seriously as an ideological act, one way of explaining it would be that this is someone who has concluded that the house is broken and cannot be fixed from within.

That is a radical position that I don’t agree with and I don’t think history supports. The amazing thing about liberalism is that it enables improvement over time with nonviolent means, and as flawed as it is, the alternative is worse.

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More revealing is the Amazon page for the book: What’s Our Problem?: A Self-Help Book for Societies. First of all, it’s self-published, by “Wait But Why” (also the name of his blog). Second of all, the 596-page hardcover edition is $57.20, an exorbitant price compared to books from any traditional publisher, though there’s also a cheaper paperback for $37.99. The print editions just came out last month, but the Kindle edition came out in February 2023. And third of all, the Amazon page doesn’t quote any formal reviews, just blurbs by Lex Fridman, Andrew Yang, Elon Musk (?!) and Bari Weiss.

Nevertheless. Especially revealing is opening the “Read sample” function on Amazon. The book blends text with lots of cartoon-diagrams, rather like some of Robert Reich’s books (and web pages). I’m impressed by the ideas he opens with: a diagram showing how small recorded history is compared to all of human history; a chart contrasting the first 999 pages (so to speak) with the last 1000th; and a section contrasting the Primitive Mind with the Higher Mind, with a ladder between the two. It looks very similar to the contrasts I’ve been making between tribal mentality, or morality, and the modern cosmopolitan mentality, and his discussion looks very similar to the points I’ve been making about how the world is now facing problems that cannot be solved by isolated tribes using the tribal (conservative) mindset. Is this the theme of his book? Further pages show various spectra in how people think about things; again, I’ve contrasted conservative black and white thinking with liberal perception of complexity, of shades of gray and even colors. There’s a comparison between “can I believe it” and “must I believe it,” a key point from one of Michael Shermer’s book, IIRC. How to think like an attorney, vs like a zealot; the idea of intellectual cultures.

All of this is just up my alley; perhaps he’s read a lot of the same books I have and arrived at similar conclusions? But while the book apparently includes 100 pages of notes, the Amazon preview doesn’t include them. I wish the book would get some professional reviewer attention, but if it hasn’t by now, it probably won’t. A quick Google search turns up only reviews by other bloggers.

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There’s also a website, Wait But Why with this post about his writing the book.

Well, I’ll think about it.

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One more about the drones. Like a lot of mysterious phenomena, they say more about human psychology than about reality.

Washington Post, Opinion by Garrett M. Graff, 18 Dec 2024: Panic over mystery drones says more about people than UFOs, subtitled “Life’s great mysteries aren’t solved while taking out the trash or driving along a deserted highway.”

The rising panic over mystery drones swarming the skies of Mid-Atlantic states reminds us that, in the centuries-long hunt to identify UFOs, humans are usually the weakest link.

America has real national security challenges in the new era of unmanned aerial vehicles in warfare. But an invasion of mystery drones over New Jersey isn’t one of them.

As it turns out, just as eyewitnesses often bungle the details of, say, a car accident on the corner, we are notoriously unreliable when it comes to identifying and reporting UFOs. A huge percentage of “sightings” turn out, upon investigation, to be the planet Venus or other surprisingly bright astronomical phenomena; people on the ground regularly misjudge distances in the sky so that even objects miles away are perceived to be close by.

The UFO mistaken-identity problem is a big part of the reason that the military and scientists now refer to such sightings more precisely as UAP, or unidentified anomalous phenomena — a label meant to capture that many sightings might not be “objects” at all but are more likely to be known, or as yet unknown, astronomical and atmospheric phenomena.

With examples of serious investigators who made serious mistakes. And again, about the psychological:

I’ve always been fascinated by the self-centered confidence that underlies so many UFO reports, that people’s first instinct upon spotting a bright, moving light in the night sky is not to assume the obvious — say, a star, meteor, satellite or faraway jetliner — but instead to imagine that, after an alien craft journeyed thousands of light-years across interstellar space to visit Earth, the aliens would pick that moment on a random Tuesday night to reveal themselves to someone on a dark, rural road or in a suburban backyard. Occam’s razor, the useful medieval theory that argues the simplest explanation is usually the best, would tell you that the sound of hoofbeats more likely means horses than zebras.

And this.

Beyond that, our cultural fascination with UFOs stems from the fact that it is a rare area where we can all gaze upon the deepest frontier of knowledge. As an ordinary person, I can’t add much to the already-advanced scientific and mathematical questions of our time: I’m not liable to crack string theory wide open during a weekend barbecue, nor is my tinkering in the garage likely to deliver to humanity the secret to nuclear fusion.

And yet, as the New Jersey drone mystery reminds us, every time any of us looks out the kitchen window, glances into the backyard sky or drives down an empty highway, we can believe we might see that one glowing light that changes everything.

Posted in History, Psychology, Social Progress | Leave a comment

Notes from Inside the Universe

  • Vox answers questions about the drones;
  • A piece by Rahm Emanual inspires my own thinking about how much it matters which party is in power, every election cycle;
  • Trump wants to expel immigrants but is happy to hire them;
  • Nancy Mace is worried that the drones might be coming from “outside the universe”;
  • Once again about vaccines, safer than they have ever been.

One more piece about the drones, from Vox, which fancies itself a site that “explains” things. (Curiously, it’s filed under “politics.”)

Vox, Li Zhou, 17 Dec 2024: What’s up with all these drone sightings?, subtitled “The 7 biggest questions, answered as best we can.”

So, what’s new here? The article begins with the basics: when the sightings started; if they’re actually drones (some are, among a mixture of different aircraft), who’s behind them (no evidence they’re nefarious), whether they’ve caused any problems (only incidentally), what the government is doing about them (not enough for some people), and how people should respond (contact law enforcement; don’t shoot them down, despite what Trump said).

Well, nothing really new here. Nothing to challenge the null-hypothesis: that this whole phenomenon is nothing more than people noticing things that have always been there in the sky, and the mere fact news about it spreads causes more people to report they’re seeing things they just haven’t noticed before, and so on. One fact: apparently flying personal drones at night has only recently been legalized, so there’s that. Another: Many of the “drone” sightings are within the flight paths of airports. So there’s that.

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This piece inspires big picture thinking. I saw a Fb post about how it’s rare, over the past century, for the same party to win two presidential elections in a row (perhaps meaning non-incumbents). It’s as if voters — at least the minority of wafflers in the middle, who have no firm convictions and yet who decide the elections — keep changing their minds about what they want. Or are continually dissatisfied, so if they’re not made happy by one party, they try the other, and back again.

Washington Post, opinion by Rahm Emanual (the US Ambassador to Japan), 17 Dec 2024: The road back to power for Democrats, subtitled “It begins with messengers and messages that meet the moment.”

He says that Trump somehow channeled a nation’s fury that the Democratic Party has been blind to.

But this is almost an aside. Big picture thinking: whichever party is in power for four years makes incremental (usually) shifts in policy, backwards or forward. *Compared to the long term.* And the *long term* is that society does gradually become more progressive. This was the message of the 2016 Prothero book (reviewed here.) Society moves steadily onward; conservatives notice only once they’re on the losing side, and retreat to find something else to complain about. Conservatives are not still defending slavery, or objecting to women voting. Most of them, anyway.

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Trump wants to expel all the immigrants, but he’s happy to hire them as needed.

CNN, 16 Dec 2024: Trump vows to ‘hire American.’ His businesses keep hiring foreign guest workers

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Fun.

JMG, 17 Dec 2024: Mace: Drones Could Be From “Outside The Universe”

I know there’s a general lack of understanding among the population about the difference between comets and meteors, stars and planets, galaxies and nebula, and so on — exacerbated by the flimsy science in Hollywood movies and TV — and here’s a good example. This is more about the drones.

“Because my question is about national security, and I hope that it’s us, I hope it’s not our adversaries or something from outside the universe because I have real concerns that if these drones are from Iran or China like some of the rumors have been.

“I pray that they’re ours, but we should also know why they’re out there. Like, are they looking for radiation? Are they looking for a nuclear warhead?”

“Outside the Universe?” What would that even mean? “Are they looking for radiation”?? Why are Republicans so content with morons like this?

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One more for this evening, on a serious, fundamental issue.

NY Times, Apoorva Mandavilli, 14 Dec 2024: Are Childhood Vaccines ‘Overloading’ the Immune System? No., subtitled “Vaccines today are more efficient and contain far fewer stimulants to the immune system than some used decades ago.”

It’s an idea as popular as it is incorrect: American babies now receive too many vaccines, which overwhelm their immune systems and lead to conditions like autism.

This theory has been repeated so often that it has permeated the mainstream, echoed by President-elect Donald J. Trump and his pick to be the nation’s top health official, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

“When you feed a baby, Bobby, a vaccination that is, like, 38 different vaccines and it looks like it’s been for a horse, not a, you know, 10-pound or 20-pound baby,” Mr. Trump told Mr. Kennedy on a call in July. “And then you see the baby all of a sudden starting to change radically — I’ve seen it too many times.”

On Sunday, Mr. Trump returned to the theme, saying Mr. Kennedy would investigate whether childhood vaccines caused autism, even though dozens of rigorous studies have already explored and dismissed that theory.

“I think somebody has to find out,” Mr. Trump said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

But the idea that today’s vaccines are overtaxing children’s immune systems is fundamentally flawed, experts said. Vaccines today are cleaner and more efficient, and they contain far fewer stimulants to the immune system — by orders of magnitude — than they did decades ago.

There will always be people with a little knowledge who will be suspicious of people with greater knowledge.

One more quote:

Mr. Kennedy and others have claimed that thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative in some childhood vaccines, causes autism. They have pointed in particular to the combined vaccine against mumps, measles and rubella.

But that vaccine has never contained thimerosal. Even when the preservative appeared in other vaccines, trace amounts were present at about the levels found in a can of tuna fish.

Don’t bother conservatives with facts; they know what they know.

Posted in Conservative Resistance, Lunacy, Science | Leave a comment

The Drones! The Drones!

First let’s finish the second Robert Reich item we began yesterday. Then the drones.

Robert Reich, 13 Dec 2024: America’s four stories (Part 2)

VI. The Democrats’ Reluctance to Tell the Truth about the Rot at the Top

The Democrats’ weakest story has been the Rot at the Top. Democrats have been reluctant to condemn economic elites who have grown richer than ever and who have used their affluence to corrupt the political system.

This should not be surprising. Since the 1980s, Democrats have been drinking at the same funding troughs as Republicans — big corporations, Wall Street, and wealthy individuals. And as the Supreme Court opened the spigots of big money into politics, those troughs have become far larger, for both parties.

Soon after he was installed in the White House, Obama branded Wall Street bankers “shameful” for giving themselves nearly $20 billion in bonuses as the economy was deteriorating and the government was spending billions to bail out their banks.

In a private meeting, the CEOs of the biggest banks reportedly sought to explain to him why they and their top executives deserved the bonuses. Obama stopped the conversation short. “Be careful how you make those statements, gentlemen. The public isn’t buying that. My administration is the only thing between you and the pitchforks.”

Ultimately, some 10 million homeowners lost their homes to foreclosure. This was not an inevitable result of the financial crisis. It was a policy choice.

Between 1972 and Trump’s election in 2016, the pay of the typical American worker dropped 2 percent, adjusted for inflation, although the American economy more than doubled in size. At the same time, the richest one-tenth of 1 percent owned more wealth than the bottom 90 percent put together.

Americans born in the early 1940s had a 92 percent chance of obtaining a higher household income than their parents, once they became adults. They would live out the American dream. But those chances steadily declined. Americans born in the 1980s had only a 50-50 shot at doing better than their parents.

This is the real story of the Rot at the Top — rigging the economy against average workers, cutting taxes on the top and raising them on everyone else, making it harder to form labor unions, and creating vast monopolies.

Democrats have benefited from this system too.

The Democrats’ failure to tell this story has enabled Republican cultural populism to fill the void, offering Americans who were growing distrustful of the system an explanation for what had gone wrong and a set of villains to blame — immigrants, “coastal elites,” “woke”ism, the “deep state,” transgendered people, “communists,” “socialists,” the “Left,” Critical Race Theory, “cat ladies,” and other bogeymen.

With examples from Trump, DeSantis, and Vance.

Republican cultural populism is entirely bogus. The biggest change over the previous four decades, the change lurking behind the insecurities and resentments of the working middle class, has had nothing to do with identity politics, “woke”ism, or any other Republican cultural target.

The biggest change has been a giant upward shift in the distribution of income and wealth; in the power that has accompanied that shift; and in the injuries to the pride, status, and self-esteem of those who have been left behind.

What’s holding us back from remedying this? Concentrated wealth and power to a degree we haven’t witnessed in this nation since the late 19th century.

Yet Republicans, in particular, are egging it on.

Mammoth corporations and hugely rich individuals have abused their power and wealth to corrupt our democracy, take over much of our media, give executives stratospheric pay packages while firing workers, and pad their nests with special tax breaks and corporate welfare.

In this, they have been helped by a Republican Congress and White House whose guiding ideology seems less capitalism than cronyism, as shown time and again by Trump and his lackeys.

Donald Trump has already named more billionaires to his pending administration than any administration in history, starting with giving the wealthiest person in the world responsibility for identifying and cutting out so-called government “inefficiencies.”

Ending:

Unless or until Democratic candidates tell the real story of our time — the corruption of our system of self-government that has been the direct consequence of record inequality — and vow to take it on as their central mission, they will have failed the nation.

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The Drones! The Drones!

NY Times, 14 Dec 2024: Weeks of Drone Sightings Leave New Jersey on Edge, subtitled “In the Garden State, where the rash of sightings started a month ago, residents are looking to the skies, wondering why they still don’t have definitive answers from officials.”

And it’s in the national TV news too. I’m coming to the provisional conclusion, based more on circumstances than evidence, that this matter if just another “scare” from people who don’t realize what they’re seeing. Just as many UFO sightings turn out to be Venus, by people who rarely look at the night sky or realize what planets in the night sky look like.

Federal officials have said that there is no evidence that the sightings pose a threat to public safety, or that a majority of them are even drones. Many of the sightings have actually proved to be manned aircraft mistaken as drones, according to officials with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the F.B.I.

But official assurances have done little to quell public concern in New Jersey, and many residents say they feel frustrated by the lack of information from state and federal authorities.

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CFI, Center for Inquiry, Benjamin Radford, 16 Dec 2024: Return of the ‘Mysterious’ Drones and the Twilight of Ambiguity

It’s easy to forget in an era of attenuating attention spans and a continual churn of news, but these drone scares are nothing new. Almost exactly five years ago, as 2019 came to a close, news reports spread about nearly two dozen “mysterious” drones sighted in the night skies over rural Colorado and Nebraska. Despite the (presumed) drones apparently operating legally under Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) regulations (and not, for example, at a high altitude or near a Colorado airport or government buildings) authorities launched investigations. Concerned—and/or annoyed—residents asked if it was legal to shoot the drones down and were told it was not a good idea; it is considered an aircraft and someone else’s property. Still, people were understandably unnerved.

The new sightings follow the same pattern. As The New York Times noted, “For weeks, federal authorities investigating the sightings have provided few answers about what the objects are or their origin, leaving residents unsettled and local leaders frustrated. Alejandro Mayorkas, the head of the Department of Homeland Security, confirmed in an interview with ABC News on Sunday ‘that there’s no question that drones are being sighted.’ Mr. Mayorkas said the Federal Aviation Administration changed its rules last year so that drones could fly at night — a possible reason, he said, for the recent uptick in sightings along the East Coast.”

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This hasn’t stopped the right-wing extremists from making random charges. Charlie Kirk wants to shoot them down (see the CFI post). And:

JMG, 16 Dec 2024: Fox Host Suggests Chinese Migrants Are Behind Drones

Conservatives blame anything alarming on people they don’t like, without evidence.

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From Connie Willis’ CW Daily column on Facebook, December 15, 2024:

The big story as far as MAGA is concerned is those mysterious lights around New Jersey, which Trumpers in the Midwest now claim they’re starting to see:

— Fox is now covering this story non-stop (I think to distract from Trump’s terrible nominees and other awful news stories) and it’s whipping their viewers into a frenzy.

— They’re convinced the lights are drones and that it’s the Russians or the Iranians (or aliens.) Chris Christie claimed he saw a drone directly over his house. He, like Trump, wants the state police to “bring those drones down and find out why they’re doing what they’re doing.”

— State and federal officials say they’re just airplanes and helicopters and not a threat to residents, but they’re not listening.

(Note: over half the UFO sightings turn out to be Venus, which people simply can’t believe is that bright. And add to that the fact that in the sky it’s almost impossible to tell how large something is (witness the moon, which looks huge on the horizon and then mysteriously shrinks as it rises in the sky, but if you put your thumb up to cover it, it’s exactly the same size all the time) and or how far away it is. I once saw a meteorite that looked like it was headed straight for downtown Denver that turned out to have fallen in Utah, over 350 miles away. And many of the things people are saying about the lights are exactly what they’ve said about UFOs in the past — they hover and disappear and change direction. (This does NOT mean they’re UFOs. I spent several years researching UFOs for my book, THE ROAD TO ROSWELL, and never once read about a credible sighting or saw any video that looked like anything but an airplane — or Venus.)

Posted in Culture, Politics | Leave a comment

Fear, Outrage, and Paranoia

I’ve been curious, but have never been sufficiently tempted, to watch or listen to right-wing media for any period of time. These two pieces confirm my impression that most of its content is about fear and outrage. Fear of a complex world conservatives don’t understand, outrage that nobody does anything about it. They just want to make it all go away, and presumably are pleased that Trump seems intent on dismantling most of the government, and making all those icky immigrants disappear. (Which of course he won’t be able to do.)

This short AlterNet piece, ‘Alternate reality’: What happened when an NYT reporter immersed himself in far-right media, posted Dec 13, summarizes this much longer NYT piece:

NY Times, Stuart A. Thompson, 13 Dec 2024: I Traded My News Apps for Rumble, the Right-Wing YouTube. Here’s What I Saw.

The writer watched 47 hours of video on Rumble for this article, beginning two weeks after the election

I started by visiting Rumble’s homepage on Monday morning where I saw my first recommended video. It was about the risk of nuclear war, with an A.I.-generated photo of President Biden laughing maniacally above a headline that read: “WWIII INCOMING?! Biden Authorizes Strike on Russia Ahead of Trump Taking Office!!”

Rumble was once an obscure video platform featuring mostly viral cat videos. Founded in 2013 by a Canadian entrepreneur, it was designed as a home for independent creators who felt crowded out on YouTube. But the platform took a hard right turn around the time of the Capitol riots on Jan. 6, 2021, when social networks and YouTube cracked down on users who violated their rules. Conservatives flocked to other platforms, including Rumble, which quickly embraced its new role as a “free speech” haven — and saw its valuation surge to half a billion dollars practically overnight.

Its content today goes far beyond cat videos. Video game livestreams populate its homepage alongside a bizarre face-slapping competition called “Power Slap.” But political commentary and news remain its most popular categories by far.

(The actual article has embedded links to little pop-up videos for “WWIII INCOMING” and “Power Slap,” which I did not copy here. The link above is a gift-link; you can see those links there.)

Just a few hours into the experiment, it was clear that I was falling into an alternate reality fueled almost entirely by outrage.

With examples.

Hour by hour, Rumble’s hosts stoked fears about nearly everything: culture wars, transgender Americans and even a potential World War III.

It goes on and on. One section focuses on a particular pattern: Dan Bongino, one of the channel’s stars, doesn’t talk about issues so much as complain about how “progressive or mainstream media figures” discuss issues. Common across Rumble, apparently.

Nearly every show I watched on Rumble framed issues this way, focusing on how news was discussed by mainstream media, and then complaining about it.

And of course once notice of this NYT article became known, the writer got threats.

After watching Rumble nonstop for days, I realized this very article was likely to fuel its own cycle of outrage on the platform. But I was surprised when that happened before it was even published.

I wrote to everyone mentioned in the article to ask for their perspective about Rumble and its popular shows, but few replied. Instead, people like Russell Brand, the former actor turned political commentator, took one of my emails and made an entire segment out of it. Mr. Bongino called me “public enemy No. 1” and claimed my story would focus on Rumble’s fringiest voices in a bid to get the site banned.

“Don’t ever email us,” he warned. “Don’t. Because you’re going to become part of the show.”

Fear, outrage, and paranoia.

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So remind us what the conservative agenda is, again. Making the world a better place? They might think so, but they only mean for themselves, not people unlike themselves. “Conservatism” seems to mean maintaining the status quo for those in traditional roles in society, at the expense of everyone else.

Washington Post, 13 Dec 2024: Energized by next Trump term, red states move agendas further right, subtitled “Governors, legislators and attorneys general ready plans for the ‘perfect storm of conservative policies’ coming to many state legislatures and Washington.”

Idaho lawmakers want to allow school staff to carry concealed firearms without prior approval and parents to sue districts in library and curriculum disputes. Lawmakers in Oklahoma plan to further restrict abortion by limiting the emergency exceptions and to require the Ten Commandments to be displayed in public schools, while their counterparts in Arkansas are moving to create the felony offense of “vaccine harm,” which could make pharmaceutical companies or their executive officers potentially criminally liable.

But Texas is most ambitious.

Migrants are a particular focus, with bills to create a “Texas border protection unit” and to repeal in-state tuition for undocumented students, requiring colleges to notify law enforcement if they learn a student is undocumented. They also would require state police to DNA-test migrants taken into custody, allow troopers to return undocumented immigrants to Mexico if they are seen entering Texas illegally, fingerprint and track migrant children in a database, and bar immigrants who are in the country illegally from accessing public legal services.

(Conservatives wrongly think that immigrants are somehow a burden on society, while their policies would make sure they become a burden on society.)

Further examples from Florida, and Tennessee. Conservatives are certain they know what is best, and would impose their ideas on everyone.

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Let’s return to Robert Reich, whose pieces on America’s “four stories” we began yesterday.

Part I goes on with two more sections.

The Democrats’ Initial Success in Telling These Four Stories

Speak to these four stories and you resonate with the tales Americans have been telling each other since our founding — the two hopeful stories rendered more vivid by contrast to the two fearful ones.

These four mental boxes are always going to be filled somehow, because people don’t think in terms of isolated policies or issues. If they’re to be understandable, policies and issues must fit into these larger stories about where we have been as a nation, what we are up against, and where we should be going.

Major shifts in governance — in party alignments and political views — have been precipitated by one party or the other becoming better at telling these four stories.

The stories served to address big business, and deal with the Great Depression and World War II.

When the Democrats’ Changed Their Stories
By the 1960s the economy had changed, and the Vietnam War happened. Democrats stopped talking about the Rot at the Top and the Mob at the Gates.

Then part 2:

Robert Reich, 13 Dec 2024: America’s four stories (Part 2), subtitled “The Democrats’ failure to tell the truth about Rot at the Top”

In this second part, Reich describes how various presidents, beginning with Reagan, have told these stories. Long piece in which I’ll to find key points.

Reagan. Mob: the Soviet Union. Rot: big government. Benevolent community: traditional neighborhoods, which he could rely on in order to cut social spending. Triumphant Individual: business entrepreneurs, unencumbered by government regulations and taxes, which through “trickle down” economies, would benefit us all. (Of course, trickle down economics never worked, as objective economists have long pointed out. The wealthy just buy more yachts, leading over the decades to soaring economic inequality.)

Clinton inherited a huge deficient from the first Bush, and in effect gave up by declaring “the era of big government is over.”

Too long. Briefly. George W. Bush: terrorists were the mob, the benevolent community was identified with faith-based communities, and the Rot at the Top shifted to the “cultural elitists” who ate sushi and drove Volvos, a cliche that endures.

Obama: He came close to offering new versions of the four stories. He linked the Benevolent Community to the Triumphant Individual to a belief in the common good and equal opportunity. The Mob became the villains at the top trying to divide us.

One final segment tomorrow.

Posted in Conservative Resistance, History, Lunacy, Politics | Leave a comment

American Narratives

  • Infrastructure note;
  • Robert Reich on America’s four stories;
  • Heather Cox Richardson on how Trump has no apparent plan for governance.

Infrastructure note. I’ve installed an initial set of theme pages under the “NF Reviews” menu item above, which appear as items in a drop down menu. All the titles on the main page are on one (and only one) of the theme pages, though many of them straddle one or more of the nominal ten themes. I’ll figure out some way of cross-referencing them.

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Robert Reich has a couple long posts this week titled “America’s four stories” and how Republicans have done better aligning themselves with them than the Democrats have. Haven’t read them yet. But at a glance I’m fascinated in that the four stories represent a kind of American mythology of how the world is and how Americans are supposed to behave. American behave as if these stories are truths handed down from on high, but of course they’re only *stories*, narratives, derived from the circumstances of where Americans came from and what they did when they got here — and other nations and cultures surely have different stories.

Robert Reich, 12 Dec 2024: America’s four stories (Part 1), subtitled “Trump has offered extreme versions. The Democrats stopped offering them at all.”

To win back the heart and soul of America, Democrats must retell the four basic stories that have defined and animated the United States since its founding.

For most of the 20th century, Democrats did this instinctively. But in this century, they have tended to speak in technocratic terms, giving Republicans — culminating in Trump — the dominant political narrative.

I want to tell you about how the four basic American stories have been told and explain why it’s urgent that the real story of our era be told: that wealth and power concentrated at the top are corrupting American democracy and shafting most working people.

I’ll summarize his four stories…

There are four essential American stories. The first two are about hope; the second two are about fear.

The Triumphant Individual. This is the tale of the little guy who works hard, takes risks, believes in himself, and eventually gains wealth, fame, and honor.

It’s the story of self-made people who buck the odds, spurn the naysayers, and show what can be done with enough gumption and guts. They’re plainspoken, self-reliant, and uncompromising in their ideals — underdogs who make it through hard work and faith in themselves.

Examples are Benjamin Franklin and the Horatio Alger novels. Rocky, Norma Rae, Erin Brockovich. Trump wants to be one.

The Benevolent Community. This is the story of neighbors and friends who roll up their sleeves and pitch in for the common good.

Its earliest formulation was John Winthrop’s “A Model of Christian Charity,” delivered on board a ship in Salem Harbor just before the Puritans landed in 1630 — a version of Matthew’s Sermon on the Mount, in which the new settlers would be “as a City upon a Hill,” “delight in each other,” and be “of the same body.”

Then the abolitionists and civil rights activists, town meetings, Norman Rockwell, Frank Capra. Trumpists distort the story to imply it’s fallen to wokism, CRT, and so on.

The Mob at the Gates. In this story, the United States is a beacon light of virtue in a world of darkness, uniquely blessed but continuously endangered by foreign menaces. Hence our endless efforts to contain the barbarism and tyranny beyond our borders.

Daniel Boone fought Native Americans; Davy Crockett fought the Mexicans. Science fiction heroes battle alien invaders. The Cold War and the evil empires. Trumpists emphasize this story to scare Americans into believing they’re constantly under threat from foreigners and immigrant invaders.

The Rot at the Top. The last story concerns the malevolence of powerful elites. It’s a tale of corruption, decadence, and irresponsibility in high places — of conspiracy against the common citizen.

King George III, distrust of the government, bullies in American fiction like Mr. Potter in It’s a Wonderful Life. Hofstadter’s paranoid style in US politics; the Ku Klux Klan; Joseph McCarthy’s witch hunts. Trump turns this story into raging against government agencies and the “deep state.”

And I’ll pause there for now, and return to Reich’s pieces in coming days. The point to me is these are attitudes built up among Americans, especially about external threats and the corruption of the government, that evolved in American society for various circumstantial reasons. And have solidified into prejudices. (I wonder if these posts are seeds for another Reich book.) And are mostly not true.

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Here’s Heather Cox Richardson’s even-handed, historically perspectived take on Donald Trump being named Time Magazine’s Person of the Year.

Letters from an American, Heather Cox Richardson: 13 Dec 2024

Time magazine’s interview with President-elect Donald Trump, published yesterday, revealed a man who was so desperate to be reelected to the presidency that he constructed a performance that he believed would woo voters, but who has no apparent plans for actual governance.

Trump deliberately patterned the Republican National Convention where he accepted the party’s nomination for president on a professional wrestling event, even featuring a number of professional wrestlers. It appears now that the campaign itself was, similarly, a performance—possibly, as Tom Nichols of The Atlantic suggested, simply to avoid the threat of conviction in one of the many federal or state cases pending against him. In the Time interview, Trump called his campaign “72 Days of Fury.”

During the campaign, Trump repeatedly promised he would “slash” the prices that soared during the post-pandemic economic recovery, although in fact they have been largely stable for the past two years. He hammered on the idea that he would erase transgender Americans from public life—the Republicans invested $215 million in ads that pushed that theme, making it a key cultural battle. He and his surrogates attacked immigrants, lying that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, for example, were eating local pets and that Aurora, Colorado, a suburb of Denver, had been taken over by Venezuelan gangs, and falsely claiming that the Biden administration had opened the southern border.

The Time interview suggests that, now that he has won back power, Trump has lost interest in the promises of the campaign.

As already noted, he is walking back his promise to lower grocery prices. Among other issues. He’s going to look at things. He has concepts of plans, but no plans.

If Trump has now abandoned the performance he used to win the election, Trump’s planned appointments to office reveal that the actual pillars of his presidency will be personal revenge, the destruction of American institutions, and the use of political office for gain, also known as graft.

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Pretty to Think So

One of my running themes — here on this blog, in the reviews I’ve written of SF novels and stories in recent years, in my essay for Gary Westfahl awaiting publication, and in my book if I manage to write it — is that some of the ideals and presumptions of even the best science fiction of the 20th century are turning out to be totally wrong. The standard examples are: there are plenty of reasons to think that ESP, telepathy, precognition, all of that, is bunk, mere wishful thinking based on infantile perceptions of the world; and notions of easy interstellar travel that beg questions about how such travel will take place (given physics), and whether there are actually habitable planets out there we can just drop in on and build a colony. The principle reason here is that science has advanced greatly over the past century. Some of what science fiction might have legitimately speculated about 70 years ago is now out of bounds, if we’re being honest. (An earlier example: hollow Earth.) These presumptions persist in pop sci-fi — TV and movies, especially including Trek and Wars — and of course they appeal to the popular imagination in exactly the same way all those psychological biases do, that lure us into magical thinking and conspiracy theories. It’s fun to watch spaceships zooming from planet to planet in 5 minutes, and pretty to think it might be possible with technology advanced enough, but it’s unlikely to ever happen.

A few science fiction writers have realized this, the standard example, again, being Kim Stanley Robinson’s 2015 novel AURORA. But pop sci-fi, and even many published works, still attract more readers by appealing to intuitively thrilling but discredited notions.

Here’s an example of a scientist pointing out problems with one traditional science fiction, and pop sci-fi, presumption.

Big Think, Adam Frank, 11 Dec 2024: Galactic civilizations may be impossible. Here’s why., subtitled “The problem for galactic-scale civilizations comes down to two numbers.”

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Posted in Conservative Resistance, Politics, science fiction | Comments Off on Pretty to Think So