False Realities

  • Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts, as we’ve long heard;
  • Historian Heather Cox Richardson dismantles claims of Trump’s “mandate”;
  • Short items about MTG and NPR; Fox News personalities becoming America’s scientists and doctors; revenge of the Covid contrarians; and how RFK Jr’s response to measles in Samoa led to 80 deaths;
  • How Trump’s budget cutters illustrate rote conservative principles — reduce government, cut taxes, more money for the military — without any kind of background rationales;
  • Paul Krugman on how exceptions to Trump’s tariffs will result in crony capitalism;
  • How how Jesus supports whatever his believers support.

Scientific American, Robert Jay Lifton, 25 Nov 2024: When a Nation Embraces a False Reality, subtitled “A renowned psychiatrist and activist compares Trump’s election to other pivotal historical moments in which the ultimate victim was truth itself”

Daniel Patrick Moynihan once said that “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.” That’s a simple, profound and true statement.
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Political Extremes and Instability

  • Perhaps the problem is that claims of “mandates” create political instability, and that’s what makes voters cynical about government;
  • Especially when mandate claimers promise things they can’t possibly deliver, like Musk promising to slash the budget by $2 trillion;
  • How Trump and the Republicans, far from following the norms of a Constitution they claim to venerate, want to sidestep them at every opportunity;
  • And what conservatives are really concerned about, when they rail against transgender rights.

From a few days ago; it was already apparent.

Slate, Jim Newell, 20 Nov 2024: Republicans Should Probably Cool It With the “Mandate” Talk, subtitled “Trump’s popular vote win may not be what it seems.”

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This Much is Reality… and This Much is Fantasy

  • Silverberg on reality vs. fantasy;
  • It wasn’t a landslide, thus not a mandate;
  • OnlySky: why is fascism rising?
  • OnlySky: how knowledge endures or disappears.

Here’s a passage from a key science fiction story that addresses the nature of reality, in a metafictional way, that also addresses the dreams of science fiction versus the likely reality that most of those dreams will never come true. This is Robert Silverberg’s “Schwartz Between the Galaxies,” published in 1974, opening:

This much is reality: Schwartz sits comfortably cocooned — passive, suspended — in a first-class passenger rack aboard a Japan Air Lines rocket, nine kilometers above the Coral Sea. And this much is fantasy: the same Schwartz has passage on a shining starship gliding silkily through the interstellar depths, en route at nine times the velocity of light from Betelgeuse IX to Rigel XXI, or maybe from Andromeda to the Lesser Magellanic.

(Of course there’s an irony that even the “reality” of this passage, about passenger rockets arcing over the Earth faster than our current jet airliners, will also likely never happen.)

The story goes on:

There are no starships. Probably there never will be any. Here we are, a dozen decades after the flight of Apollo 11, and no human being goes anywhere except back and forth across the face of the little O, the Earth, for the planets are barren and the stars are beyond reach. …

Beginning in the 1960s and usually labeled the “New Wave,” a subset of science fiction began expressing doubts about the bright optimistic interstellar futures of earlier science fiction. Fantasy giving way to reality.

\\\

It wasn’t a landslide. Many votes come in late every year, and shift the initial outcome. It’s happened before, even as Trump rages about fraud and stolen elections.

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The Anticipation of Unintended Consequences

Many are predicting that the new administration’s plans, especially concerning deportations and tariffs, will backfire and wreck the economy, or at least raise prices in ways they apparently cannot anticipate. But one guesses that the Republicans will not admit it when it happens, and will frantically spin to put their results in the best possible light. Trump’s supporters will believe anything.

  • Republican voters, based on no change of evidence whatsoever, now think the economy isn’t so bad;
  • David Frum on what he got wrong: that human beings are good at seeing through frauds;
  • NPR and Paul Krugman on the consequences of expelling foreign scientists, the ones who have driven America’s dominance in science and technology;
  • And quick takes about sex offenders and trans women, Trump’s cabinet of sexual abuse offenders, and conservatives’ veneration of the founding fathers, even concerning public schools.
– – –

Washington Post, column by Philip Bump, 21 Nov 2024: Lots of Republicans suddenly think the economy wasn’t that bad after all, subtitled “Polling from YouGov shows a sharp shift in Republican opinions over the past month.” (via)

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Dispatches from the Real World

  • My latest take on the true vs the real;
  • A piece about RFK Jr identifies the three big reasons you’re alive today: clean water, antibiotics, and vaccines;
  • How we know RFK Jr is wrong about vaccines;
  • How red states lead in STI rates.

To begin, an update on the idea of the true vs. the real. I discussed this before, here. I don’t think that was quite right. Another try: Truth is relative; everyone has their personal truth. (Is mine the same as yours? implies they could not be.) Reality is what exists, despite varying perceptions and interpretations. It’s analogous to the idea of meaning and information, in Hidalgo, summarized here. Truth is a kind of meaning, and it’s relative, and contextual. Reality is verifiable through repeated tests and observations of the world. Truth is what religion and philosophy are about; reality is about what science is about. Ideally. And science fiction, as a form of literature, deals with the various truths of various kinds of people, and tries to see through and around them to suggest areas of reality we haven’t yet perceived. Roughly.

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The Overton Window of Deviance

  • Amanda Marcotte on how Christians seem not bothered by the immorality of Trump or his Cabinet picks;
  • Bret Stephens on defining deviancy down;
  • Timothy Snyder on how Trump is actually a fascist — and how fascists use narratives;
  • David French how different kinds of voters pay different kinds of attention;
  • And a couple items about lunatics.
– – –

Christians seem not the least bothered.

Salon, Amanda Marcotte, 20 Nov 2024: How Mike Johnson’s Christian “morality” provides cover for Matt Gaetz, subtitled “Shielding Matt Gaetz fits with the long religious right tradition of defending bad men at women’s expense”

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Shocked, Just Shocked

The broad trend, perhaps, is the discomfort of tribal human beings living in multicultural liberal democracies.

  • How some people (who weren’t paying attention) are shocked that Trump is actually setting out to do what he promised to do;
  • How Trump surrounds himself with weak, small men whose sex abuse allegations are a feature, not a bug;
  • Perhaps Putin supports Trump because he’s hoping Trump will wreck America;
  • It’s not the economy, it’s a worldwide authoritarian revolt against liberal market democracy.
– – –

 

The Atlantic, David A. Graham, 19 Nov 2024: Washington Is Shocked, subtitled “Just shocked, I tell you.”

More about people who weren’t paying attention. Beginning with an example about reggaeton star Nicky Jam, who supported Trump until a Trump comedian called Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage.”

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Continuing Our Studies of Human Nature…

Today’s evidence.

  • How MAGA is a gang mentality for white men who feel powerless;
  • Adam Gopnik considers the difference between a mob and a righteous protest;
  • (And I wonder about the American revolutionaries);
  • Short items about Robert Reich and overereaching billionaires; a reason to avoid public schools in Texas; and phony MAGA masculinity.
– – –

Beginning with gang mentality.

Salon, Chauncey DeVega, 18 Nov 2024: Why MAGA won: Anger, resentment and “a sense of betrayal”, subtitled “Understanding the deep, visceral appeal of MAGA: It’s a ‘gang mentality’ for white men who feel powerless”

and

Washington Post, Isaac Stanley-Becker and Ellen Nakashima, 14 Nov 2024: Go bags, passports, foreign assets: Preparing to be a target of Trump’s revenge, subtitled “Some prominent critics of Donald Trump, and those he has vilified as ‘deep state’ saboteurs, are taking seriously his vow of retribution.”

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Here’s a New One: Terrain Theory

Busy day today so just one item. We’ve had the flat-earthers, the chem-trailers, the vaccine deniers, and now there are those who deny the germ theory of disease.

Boing Boing, Jennifer Sandlin, 10 Nov 2024: Germ theory denial is dangerous and on the rise

This links to a piece from a couple years ago at Popular Science, focusing more on how this issue derives from a rivalry between two 19th century scientists: This pseudoscience movement wants to wipe germs from existence

RFK Jr. apparently embraces something called “terrain theory” as an alternative to germ theory. I’ve never heard the term before this.

[Isobel Whitcomb] defines terrain theory as a wide range of beliefs that range from the “total denial of the existence of viruses and bacteria” to the idea that lifestyle choices are what determine whether “otherwise benevolent microbes to transform into pathogens.” The main idea is that it’s the body’s ecosystem, or “terrain”—and NOT germs or pathogens—that allows disease to foster. This line of thought has bolstered the ideas that masks, vaccines, and other infectious disease mitigations are not only unnecessary, but also harmful to one’s “natural immunity.” Whitcomb also strongly stresses the point that terrain theory has NO legitimacy among the actual, real scientific community.

The articles goes on with claims of how metastatic cancer can be controlled by diet, how rabies does not exist, how “they” are lying to you and how nothing has been proven, e.g. reports of plagues like Ebola were all faked. They’re reports from a fantasy world.

The pattern here is familiar. Basic naive human nature perceives agency in all things, cannot believe that things exist which cannot be seen (such as “germs”), revels in conspiracy stories in which “others” are enemies and are out to take advantage of those who are savvy enough to perceive the “truth”; and so reverts to ancient, intuitive ways of thinking about disease as being due to vapors, or dank air, or the four humours (black bile, blood, yellow bile, and phlegm, aligning with earth, air, fire, and water), and so on. Since, as their religions tell them, the only truth is what the ancients understood, and nothing real has been learned since then.

(What could be next? Deny plate tectonic theory and blame earthquakes on underground demons? Or on gays and an angry God?)

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A Little Knowledge… Is a Dangerous Thing

Imagine that you work for a company that does any kind of specialty work, anything at all — urban planning, furniture making, aerospace design — and for some reason the company’s owner dies and his aunt inherits the entire company (it’s a small company). She’s a kindly aunt but knows nothing about urban planning, furniture making, or aerospace design, but she’s a “common sense” person who is sure that smarty-pants people don’t understand efficiency, and she’s determined to set the company straight and make more money. She finished high school, perhaps, but never college, but is sure she knows better than you; she’s chatted with people in coffee shops about the sorry states of traffic lanes, dining table chairs, and the small seats on passenger jets. Never mind those safety regulations, nobody wants to pay for those, and her friends will repeal the safety rules. Never mind the new designs each year, what was wrong with the basic ones from when she grew up? Why, she can cut $2 trillion and fire most of the staff, and everything will be fine! And if you talk back, or try to point out facts that kindly aunt doesn’t want to hear, you’ll be the first to get the axe. This is where we are.

Today’s items:

  • RFK Jr threatens one of civilization’s greatest achievements: modern public health;
  • RFK Jr is not qualified because he’s an activist, not a scientist;
  • If you don’t understand why science is inherently inefficient, you don’t understand science, or appreciate its discoveries;
  • Free Inquiry’s Ronald A. Lindsay on “The Suicide of the Nation”;
  • Short items about how Trump is picking cabinet appointments on whim; how the pick of RFK Jr is somehow payback for Covid; how a prominent Christian Nationalist would simply shoot anyone trying to cross the border; how evangelicals are pushing to rescind LGBTQ protections; and how Bannon’s promise to burn institutions to the ground sounds like a foreign invasion bent on destroying the US;

NY Times, Opinion by Zeynep Tufekci, 16 Nov 2024: How Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Could Destroy One of Civilization’s Best Achievements

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