The Real Trump Mystery, and My Explanation

  • Thomas B. Edsall on The Real Trump Mystery, and how base human nature explains this;
  • Fareed Zakaria on how Trump’s economic ideas would stunt growth and spur inflation;
  • Because Trump doesn’t understand money;
  • Short items about Roseanne Barr accusing Democrats of eating babies; how Mike Johnson claims that God endorses Trump… this time; how Elon Musk and others are fighting to restore old sexual hierarchies; how JD Vance once told the truth, about Trump; and how it’s up to us, not God, to fight disease and war.

NY Times, Thomas B. Edsall, 25 Sep 2024: The Real Trump Mystery

The mystery of 2024: How is it possible that Donald Trump has a reasonable chance of winning the presidency despite all that voters now know about him? Why hasn’t a decisive majority risen to deny a second term to a man in line to be judged the worst president in American history?

Another Edsall collection of quotes and links from many sources. Subjects include conspiracy-theorists, denials of truth, some who need to unleash chaos, and so on.

My big picture take: Continue reading

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Reality v Tribal Solidarity

  • How Fox News denies reality, because that’s what their fans want to hear;
  • NYT on Trump and the condemnations by those who’ve known him;
  • How Trump’s promise to round up immigrants echoes what Putin is doing;
  • Adam Lee on historical morality and what the future will bring.

Tribal solidarity trumps acknowledgement of the real world, and I’ve often pointed out — especially if acknowledging that reality would give credit to the ‘other’ tribe.

Media Matters, Zachary Pleat: Fox is in denial of reality just weeks before the election, subtitled “Fox personalities have rejected data showing a reduction in violent crime, record energy production, plummeting inflation, and fewer unauthorized border crossings”

In recent weeks, multiple Fox personalities have been in denial of objective reality that under the Biden-Harris administration, especially in recent months, violent crime has declined, inflation is steadily declining, oil and natural gas production are at record highs, and unauthorized border crossings have plummeted.

With a dozen specific citations grouped under these headings:

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Reality v Fear

If there’s a core lesson to take away from the studies of psychological biases over the past two or three decades, it is this: our minds evolved for survival, not for accurate perception of the real world. We are primed for tribal conflict; we are primed to exaggerate our sense of threats; we see the world around us as full of threats and, via selective memory, think the past was somehow better than the present, by remembering the good (compared to the dangerous present) and forgetting the bad. And it is very difficult to think rationally, to draw accurate conclusions from actual evidence. Conclusions from actual evidence are, in the survival scheme of the world, almost useless. But they’re useful if you’re trying to understand the actual world.

These biases linger, instantiated over millions of years, even as the human condition has improved immeasurably in recent decades and centuries — because of science and technology (and not mysticism or religion). Yet we’re still stuck with people who think the present is worse than the past. And the only explanation they offer is: my tribe used to be dominant, and now I feel threatened that it’s not. They have no other measure of progress, or its decline.

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Yesterday President Biden gave speech before the United Nations. Here’s a report by NY Times, and a gloss by Slate, and a take by Heather Cox Richardson.

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Francis Collins on Facts (!)

  • Francis Collins on how facts don’t care how you feel;
  • Short pieces on Trump and golf; how brain damage is linked to religious fundamentalism; how Carlson and Vance are smart guys who play dumb; about Trump’s Truth Social posts; how Vance attacks the media for exposing his lies; how Trump’s rhetoric really does compare to Hitler’s; and how attacks against Harris’s Arizona office again reveal which side is prone to violence.

The main item today is remarkable because it’s a defense of facts by a scientist who famously converted to Christianity on the basis of seeing a waterfall that split into three parts. (See Wikipedia.) On those grounds alone, I would hesitate to trust anything he has to say about facts and feelings. (At the same time, a significant minority of scientists claim religious faith; they’re examples of how humans deal with cognitive dissonance.) Let’s give the piece a look.

NY Times, guest essay by Francis Collins, 20 Sep 24: Take It From a Scientist. Facts Matter, and They Don’t Care How You Feel. [gift link]

I am a physician and a scientist. Over 12 years, I had the privilege of serving Presidents Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden as the director of the National Institutes of Health. Before that, I led the U.S. component of the Human Genome Project.

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Utopias, Dystopias, and Tribalism

  • Follow-up to yesterday’s topic about utopias and dystopias, and Star Trek;
  • How Trump and Vance have no idea about the reasons for Obamacare;
  • Robert Reich on how Trump appeals to base hatefulness;
  • Charles M. Blow on Trump’s bigger agenda;
  • And David Lay Williams appeals to Rousseau to explain Trump.

A follow-on to yesterday’s topic. About those dreams of utopias. At the risk yet again of oversimplifying a vast literature on no doubt complex and subtle themes, very roughly one might align utopias with democracies, egalitarianism, justice, and being ‘woke’; and dystopias with tribal values and demonization of other ‘tribes’ and being ‘anti-woke’. It all boils down to different psychological takes on how the world should be. That range will likely never change. (And in ways we can only dimly imagine, such diversity could well be beneficial for the long-term survival of the species.)

Star Trek, at its beginning, was a kind of utopia. Gene Roddenberry, the show’s creator, explicitly laid out a premise in which the ancient conflicts of the past (meaning the 20th century) had been overcome, and peace and understanding (this was the ’60s) ruled over all, even among some of the alien civilizations the Enterprise encountered. From the beginning writers complained that lack of conflict between characters made stories difficult to write. And over the decades, as the movies were made and subsequent TV series were produced, Roddenberry’s vision got pretty watered down. Even today, you see references to this or that episode in one of the series as one that “Gene Roddenberry would have hated.” Well, that’s narrative drift for you. The same thing happens in every franchise. Thus the sympathetic creature created by Dr. Frankenstein became a rote monster in virtually all the movies and sequels. And so on. Another topic.

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Now to cover a batch of the past few days’ media links.

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Today’s New Insight

  • What ‘woke’ means, to different people;
  • How the ancients overcame biases in understanding the world, in order to discover and navigate the world;
  • How moderns have tried to overcome cognitive biases through constitutions and “political correctness” and being “woke,” and have been bitterly opposed by conservatives, who prefer tribal morality, to this day;
  • And so the insight: the ancients overcame human psychological biases about the shape of the world, because they had economic incentives for doing so; yet despite their success, millennia later there are still flat-earthers. While attempts to overcome tribalist human nature has led to grand movements like the US Constitution, yet most people to this day prefer tribalist mindsets: see conservatives.
  • And so: human nature is inescapable. The dreams of utopias are likely only dreams.

This item on Jerry Coyne’s site today — combined with following the implications of thought in yesterday’s blog post — suggested to me a new fundamental insight.

Jerry Coyne, Why Evolution Is True, Are we past peak woke in America?

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Admitted Liars; Presumptions of the Ancients

  • Republicans repeatedly are admitting they lie;
  • How Republicans voters trust Trump as a source of election information;
  • Reading Timothy Ferris, revisiting the ancient astronomers and their presumptions about the universe — not unlike the modern discovery of psychology biases.

Increasingly, they’re saying it aloud, admitting that they’re lying because they can get away with it, and their goals justify it (a rationale I’ve long noticed).

AlterNet, David Badah, 19 Sep 2024: Yes, Republicans are lying — and they’re not going to stop: ‘Enjoy it’

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Alarmism About Culture

  • A disgruntled French intellectual on “deculturation” sounds a lot like MAGA;
  • Shorter items about how a mother died due to Georgia’s abortion ban; how conservatives see everything they don’t like is a judgement from their God; how Trump supporters are subject to motivated reasoning and confirmation bias; Paul Krugman on how Trumponomics is even worse than “trickle-down” economics; about Trump’s superlatives and hyperbole; how Trump believes his own hype; and how Trump brags about reactions from an audience that wasn’t there.

NY Times, Joshua Rothman, 17 Sep 2024: Is Culture Dying?, subtitled “The French sociologist Olivier Roy believes that “deculturation” is sweeping the world, with troubling consequences.”

Heh. Haven’t read this yet, but it’s easy to imagine what he might claim. The solution would be about scope, and understanding inevitable change.

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Stories Are Not Evidence

  • How the right “creates stories” to support their worldview (i.e. they’re all about motivated reasoning);
  • Paul Krugman on Trump, tariffs, Stalin, and Lysenko;
  • Items about DeSantis cheating and which party is the party of violence;
  • Items about a brain fever brought on by voting for Democrats; Satanic interdimensional invasions; and how Republicans think anyone unlike them is suspect, perhaps subhuman.
  • Trying to recall Bright Eyes, or Conor Oberst

Media Matters, Matt Gertz, 16 Sep 2024: MAGA runs wild with random poster’s “ABC whistleblower” claims, subtitled “How the right works to “create stories'”

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Passages from Brian Greene and Richard Dawkins

How unusual is this? An esteemed scientist, Brian Greene, with an Opinion piece in a major paper. (I just reviewed his book UNTIL THE END OF TIME ending here.)

Washington Post, Brian Greene, 16 Sep 2024: Opinion | Decades later, string theory continues its march toward Einstein’s dream, subtitled “Why we must keep investigating physics’ most tantalizing theory — even without experimental results.”

The gist about string theory is whether it “explains” anything except mathematically, though without generating predictions that might be experimentally tested. It goes to the very nature of what science is.

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