Here’s a New One: Terrain Theory

Busy day today so just one item. We’ve had the flat-earthers, the chem-trailers, the vaccine deniers, and now there are those who deny the germ theory of disease.

Boing Boing, Jennifer Sandlin, 10 Nov 2024: Germ theory denial is dangerous and on the rise

This links to a piece from a couple years ago at Popular Science, focusing more on how this issue derives from a rivalry between two 19th century scientists: This pseudoscience movement wants to wipe germs from existence

RFK Jr. apparently embraces something called “terrain theory” as an alternative to germ theory. I’ve never heard the term before this.

[Isobel Whitcomb] defines terrain theory as a wide range of beliefs that range from the “total denial of the existence of viruses and bacteria” to the idea that lifestyle choices are what determine whether “otherwise benevolent microbes to transform into pathogens.” The main idea is that it’s the body’s ecosystem, or “terrain”—and NOT germs or pathogens—that allows disease to foster. This line of thought has bolstered the ideas that masks, vaccines, and other infectious disease mitigations are not only unnecessary, but also harmful to one’s “natural immunity.” Whitcomb also strongly stresses the point that terrain theory has NO legitimacy among the actual, real scientific community.

The articles goes on with claims of how metastatic cancer can be controlled by diet, how rabies does not exist, how “they” are lying to you and how nothing has been proven, e.g. reports of plagues like Ebola were all faked. They’re reports from a fantasy world.

The pattern here is familiar. Basic naive human nature perceives agency in all things, cannot believe that things exist which cannot be seen (such as “germs”), revels in conspiracy stories in which “others” are enemies and are out to take advantage of those who are savvy enough to perceive the “truth”; and so reverts to ancient, intuitive ways of thinking about disease as being due to vapors, or dank air, or the four humours (black bile, blood, yellow bile, and phlegm, aligning with earth, air, fire, and water), and so on. Since, as their religions tell them, the only truth is what the ancients understood, and nothing real has been learned since then.

(What could be next? Deny plate tectonic theory and blame earthquakes on underground demons? Or on gays and an angry God?)

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A Little Knowledge… Is a Dangerous Thing

Imagine that you work for a company that does any kind of specialty work, anything at all — urban planning, furniture making, aerospace design — and for some reason the company’s owner dies and his aunt inherits the entire company (it’s a small company). She’s a kindly aunt but knows nothing about urban planning, furniture making, or aerospace design, but she’s a “common sense” person who is sure that smarty-pants people don’t understand efficiency, and she’s determined to set the company straight and make more money. She finished high school, perhaps, but never college, but is sure she knows better than you; she’s chatted with people in coffee shops about the sorry states of traffic lanes, dining table chairs, and the small seats on passenger jets. Never mind those safety regulations, nobody wants to pay for those, and her friends will repeal the safety rules. Never mind the new designs each year, what was wrong with the basic ones from when she grew up? Why, she can cut $2 trillion and fire most of the staff, and everything will be fine! And if you talk back, or try to point out facts that kindly aunt doesn’t want to hear, you’ll be the first to get the axe. This is where we are.

Today’s items:

  • RFK Jr threatens one of civilization’s greatest achievements: modern public health;
  • RFK Jr is not qualified because he’s an activist, not a scientist;
  • If you don’t understand why science is inherently inefficient, you don’t understand science, or appreciate its discoveries;
  • Free Inquiry’s Ronald A. Lindsay on “The Suicide of the Nation”;
  • Short items about how Trump is picking cabinet appointments on whim; how the pick of RFK Jr is somehow payback for Covid; how a prominent Christian Nationalist would simply shoot anyone trying to cross the border; how evangelicals are pushing to rescind LGBTQ protections; and how Bannon’s promise to burn institutions to the ground sounds like a foreign invasion bent on destroying the US;

NY Times, Opinion by Zeynep Tufekci, 16 Nov 2024: How Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Could Destroy One of Civilization’s Best Achievements

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Politics and Psychology

Politics is as much about human psychology as about policy or ideology.

  • Politics succeeds via simple sound-bites, “feels,” not policies or facts;
  • It’s all about perception;
  • How what has led evangelical Christians to follow Trump is rooted in racism;
  • And how Trump plays off the “religious nostalgia” of white Christians.
– – –

OnlySky, Jonathan MS Pearce, 8 Nov 2024: Triumph of the feels, subtitled “Our UK contributor looks at the American disaster with recently acquired humility.”

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There Is Always Long Term Progress and Short Term Retreat

  • An essay that proposes that the idea of progress is a myth; I disagree;
  • Quick takes on politics, and crackpots.

OK, I can’t help but follow the political news, but for today’s post I’m sinking links about that to the bottom. Let’s start with something more thoughtful. Here’s a discussion of a serious long-term issue. Is progress a myth? No doubt it depends on one’s definition of progress.

OnlySky, Dale McGowan, 13 Nov 2024: Letting go of my last big myth, subtitled “Burying the myth of god was easy compared to freeing myself from the myth of progress.”

The writer begins by discussing his reaction to the 2024 presidential election, compared to his reaction to the 2016 election.

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Rogue’s Gallery

A Fox News host for Secretary of Defense. Stephen Miller. Matt Gaetz for…. anything. We shouldn’t be surprised.

  • Evidence that Russia is playing Trump;
  • Trump’s picks for his cabinet are surprising even many Republicans;
  • Why does it take two guys to run a department of efficiency?
  • Elon Musk makes promises without having any idea of what he’s doing;
  • How Trump’s indifference might save the Department of Education;
  • Paul Krugman anticipates the Trump administration cooking the books on inflation;
  • And Peter Wehner on the importance of truth.

Remember how Trump said he was going to end the war in Ukraine on Day One?

Slate, Fred Kaplan, 13 Nov 2024: Trump Thinks Putin Is His Friend. The Russians Just Issued a Humiliating Statement to the Contrary., subtitled “The psychological warfare has begun.”

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This Is What Dictators Do

Many topics today.

  • Trump plans to fire generals who are not “yes men”;
  • RFK Jr. plans to fire scientists who do not subscribe to his anti-scientific ideology;
  • Federal scientists anticipate firings, and the parallel with the Soviet Union and Lysenkoism;
  • Right-wing disinformation caused the “most badly informed electorate in modern American history”;
  • The Department of Education and what conservatives fear their children are being “indoctrinated” into;
  • Big Think’s Ethan Siegel on how political realities do not change scientific ones;
  • How Trump’s antagonism to the “woke” military demonstrates again how he and his followers don’t actually like most Americans;
  • How Christians explain how their “prophets” are right sometimes and wrong other times, and how tribalists always need an enemy;
  • And how this is why MAGA conservatives will never respond to appeals for “unity”.

AlterNet, 12 Nov 2024: ‘Purge anyone who will not be a yes man’: Trump readies order allowing him to fire top generals (from Wall Street Journal)

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Other Shoes Falling

The pundits (and the Democrats) have been warning people about the potential consequences of Trump’s planned policies for months, if not years. Most people see higher grocery prices and don’t care about all those theoretical consequences.

  • Paul Krugman explains why Trump’s deportations will drive up grocery bills;
  • How there really is a deep state, but not what Trump says it is, and my take on the “deep state”;
  • How America’s allies around the world are hedging.
– – –

NY Times, Paul Krugman, 11 Nov 2024: Why Trump’s Deportations Will Drive Up Your Grocery Bill [gift link]

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The Parochial and the Cosmic

  • Our mistake was thinking we lived in a better country than we do;
  • The US has lost faith in the American dream;
  • Connie Willis’s detailed daily political summaries are now at CW Daily on Facebook;
  • With today a dozen or more reason why fascism may not succeed in the US;
  • Switching gears: an essay by cosmologist Paul M. Sutter on how the emptiness of the universe gives our lives meaning.

A few more comments on the current situation.

The Guardian, Rebecca Solnit, 7 Nov 2004: Our mistake was to think we lived in a better country than we do, subtitled “Americans will be stuck cleaning up after Maga’s destructive streak because men like this never clean up after themselves”

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Do Trump’s Voters Know What They’ve Done?

  • Jamelle Bouie asks if Trump Voters know what he has planned for them;
  • Heather Cox Richardson observes how on social media Trump voters are alarmed by the implications of Trump’s polices, which somehow they hadn’t noticed before;
  • Two more lists of reasons why Trump won and Harris lost, from Slate and Salon;
  • How I see the big issue as about how humans react to short-term circumstances and cannot process long-term thinking.

Answer: No.

NY Times, Jamelle Bouie, 9 Nov 2024: What Do Trump Voters Know About the Future He Has Planned for Them?

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Lessons and Narratives

  • Everyone has theories and lessons to be drawn from the election results; Robert Reich rejects several and offers his own;
  • The focus on the current economy is just another example of short-term thinking, at the expense of bigger issues;
  • Disinformation and propaganda were key as well;
  • Items about what the world thinks, American’s dark age, how the consequences will be dire, preparing for the Trump sequel, and weaponizing the First Amendment;
  • And Adam Lee on heading into the dark, but reassuring us it won’t last forever.

It happens after every election, I’m sure, but this time the Monday-morning-quarterbacking (is that the right term?) seems especially extensive. Everyone has their own theory about what the Democrats did wrong, or what Kamala did wrong, or why voters cared about this and not that. The trouble with these is, they’re all ex post facto. If the problems were as obvious as the commentators seem to think, why weren’t they pointed out ahead of time? On the contrary, most Democrats and commentators seemed quite optimistic leading up the election…

So let’s start with Robert Reich’s piece. (In another couple days, maybe, I’ll move to non-political subjects. Maybe even science fiction!)

Robert Reich, 8 Nov 2024: The Lesson, subtitled “The real lesson we should draw from what occurred Tuesday”

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