Long-Term Considerations

It’s a basic provisional conclusion on this blog that conservatives deal with short-term matters, corporate profits and so on, without concern for long-term effects, like climate change. They’re concerned about their children — but not enough concerned about how climate change will affect the lives of their grandchild. People with science-fictional perspectives do understand that long-term effects occur; our own society is a blip in a larger scheme of things; and we do worry about long-term effects, like climate change. As do all the scientists, and others who have a firm grip upon reality.

The US Berkeley economist Robert Reich has been doing a series on his Substack about economic myths. His tenth one appeared yesterday. (I should compile them all.)

Robert Reich, 2 Aug 2024: Debunking Myth #10: Economic growth is always good, subtitled “BUNK! The Earth is a finite resource — and infinite growth will destroy it”

To me this should be *obvious* –the continued expansion of humanity cannot go on forever. Would the world be covered in suburbs? But most people simply do not think long-term. Especially not conservatives, who are very concerned with the here and now, about how many women are having how many babies, for example, as if the species is under threat of extinction; and making this long-term problem worse.

Unconstrained economic growth is causing such grave harm to the climate that its costs are likely to be greater than the gains.

Mainstream economists don’t measure the costs of growth. They talk about climate change as a so-called “externality,” as if it were just incidental to growth.

But if you consider the deaths and injuries caused by chemical pollution, wildfires, and more intense hurricanes and storms, the costs of growth are huge.

It’s possible to shift from an economy organized around growth to one organized around sustainability. How? Dramatically reduce the use of fossil fuels. Limit what can be mined and extracted.

Probably not.

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It’s also a provisional conclusion on this blog that people perceive the present as being worse than the past. It’s the essence of MAGA, and the conservative mindset — that the world needs to return to a glorious past. Despite all the evidence that indicates such a past never existed; the perception is a mental bias.

Still, there’s this:

OnlySky, Jonathan MS Pearce, 29 Jul 2024: This clusterf*** is bigger than you think, subtitled “Enjoying a morsel of good news in one corner of the world? Snap out of it.”

Most people seem unaware of how dangerous the entire world is right now, the scale of the precipice we are on and how precariously we are perched.

Momentary victories aside, we have a growing far-right electorate across Europe. Many of these countries are increasingly dancing to the tune of Vladimir Putin. And the possible next president of the US and his choice for VP are eager to join the dance. All of Ukraine’s allies and all of Russia’s allies are actively involved in a cross-domain World War III. The US, UK, and Germany provide weapons, ammunition, training, military intelligence, satellite imagery, military advice, special forces, medical equipment, logistics support—everything you would expect if we ourselves were embroiled in a conventional war.

We are involved in an economic war of sanctions and hydrocarbons, energy and commodities, financial institutions and components. We are involved in a political war of treaties and organization, alliances of friends and axes of enemies, all involved in games of influence peddling. We are involved in a cyber war with attacks on critical infrastructure throughout the world, where ransomware debilitates hospitals, hacktivists expose data, and nefarious entities under the protection of plausible deniability render pipelines and water treatment facilities unusable.

Well…. yes…. OK, but alarmists have been saying these things since the 1960s, at least. And we’re still here.

But that doesn’t mean that any one of these threats might still appear. Since there are so many of them, the likelihood of one appearing soon is still relatively high…

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Brian Greene: UNTIL THE END OF TIME, post 1

I’ve mentioned this book several times over the years (it was published in 2020), most recently here in early June, when I sat down to read it all the way through. I finished in mid-July.

Subtitled: “Mind, Matter, and Our Search for Meaning in an Evolving Universe” (Knopf, Feb. 2020, xiii+428pp, including 102pp of acknowledgements, notes, bibliography, and index)

This is one of those big books about everything that I’m so fond of. It includes the human race in its journey from the beginning to the end of time, but only abstractly, via the ways humans have understood that history of time. A core concept of the book, as I mentioned in that earlier post, is the human propensity to perceive patterns and conceive them as stories. Furthermore, we’ve invented many nested stories to understand reality at various scales. See the quote in that previous post.

I think this won’t take as long to summarize here, Continue reading

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Tribal Antics, Racism, Misogyny

Thought for the day. It occurs to me that — at the risk of tossing out another simplistic dichotomy — the OT is pure tribal morality, while the NT, parts of it anyway (Jesus, maybe, though not Paul), presents a more sophisticated, worldly morality. And so it’s telling that Christians want the Ten Commandments on classroom walls, but not anything that Jesus supposedly said.

  • More about Democrats calling Republicans names, since apparently that’s all the latter understand;
  • An appeal from a Republican governor to his party: stop the trash talk;
  • How the accusations of “weird” are driving MAGA nuts;
  • How Vance and Thiel suspect that America began going downhill when women got the vote;
  • Short items about misogyny in the US, Trump the bigot, how awful Trump is, how Trump doesn’t “want” pronouns;
  • And an essay about Christians who actually follow Jesus, and who are therefore fighting against Trump.

Two complementary items in today’s NYT, one of which echoes the item I posted yesterday.

Continue reading

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Steven Pinker: THE BLANK SLATE, post 10

Finally: the last topic chapter, about The Arts, and then the final chapter.

Earlier posts about this book: post 1, post 2, post 3, post 4, post 5, post 6, post 7, post 8, post 9.

– – –

–Ch20, The Arts

The arts community thinks the arts are in trouble; examples about bookstores closing, etc (and this was 22 years ago!) But TS Eliot said something similar in 1948. Now we have competition from science and engineering; too many PhDs; careerism.

Actually, the arts and humanities have never been in better shape; consider attendance at concerts, number of books in print; recordings of music, videos of movies, dozens of TV stations, the web. So why all the lamentations? Some say new works are mediocre. This has always been true. The best is as good as anything. There are many new varieties of music. Computer graphics. The decline is a cognitive illusion, 403m. [[ I’d say this is a variation of the “good-old-days” syndrome, which is related to the motivations of MAGA: we’re comfortable with things we’ve lived with all our lives, and skeptical of anything new and different. Thus the pace of innovation in the arts is related to the human life span. ]]

Still, there are three areas of concern. Continue reading

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How Name Calling, Unfortunately, Seems to Work

Preoccupied today with Larry matters. The estate sale finished last weekend, and went well, according to the sellers. But now the sellers of Larry’s house are charging *me* for things I kept, as if I stole things they think I’d promised that they could sell. Which I did not.

One item for today.

Slate, Scaschi Koul, 1 Aug 2024: Democrats Are Finally Going Low, and It Feels … Amazing, subtitled “Perhaps, finally, they are ready to deal with the swirl of awful that is Donald Trump.”

How to respond to Trump’s yearslong parade of luridness? Eight years ago, Michelle Obama gave a speech at the Democratic National Convention, one that would inadvertently shape the way the Democratic Party would handle Republican attacks for years to come. “When someone is cruel or acts like a bully, you don’t stoop to their level,” Michelle said. “Our motto is ‘When they go low, we go high.’ ”

It’s a nice idea. It felt good at the time for Democrats to at least be able to pat themselves on the back for their own morality. But it’s one that has not ever really won elections. Hillary Clinton famously lost in 2016, proof positive that staying above the fray wasn’t an effective strategy for this new type of Trumpian Republican who does not care about having a fair, clean fight. Maintaining the high ground in politics has been a failed strategy for almost a decade now. In 2008 you could reliably hope that a candidate’s decency would stop a voter from running her mouth at a town hall about how the Democratic candidate was a maybe-terrorist. Now you’re almost guaranteed he’ll join in. (“He is the founder of ISIS,” Trump said of Obama in 2016.)

Once again, this is understandable in light of the evolution of morality. Going “low” means appealing to tribal morality and intuitions; going “high” means appealing to higher morality and cosmopolitan sympathies. Everyone has base tribal morality built in; only a few can conceive of cosmopolitan morality. I’ve blogged about this over and over again. You can appeal to everyone by calling the other side names, as, alas, the Democrats are now doing. Only a few are responsive to higher callings.

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Steven Pinker: THE BLANK SLATE, post 9

This time: Children. The old nature vs. nurture debate is too simplistic and binary. Given implications of our innate human nature, the (by now unsurprising) takeaway here is that parents have far less influence on their children than people have thought. As many parents eventually learn to their dismay.

Earlier posts about this book: post 1, post 2, post 3, post 4, post 5, post 6, post 7, post 8.

– – –

–Ch19, Children

The nature-nurture debate is over—at least when it comes to what makes people different from one another. There are three laws of behavioral genetics. They’re simple enough, even though they dispute the long assumed Blank Slate.

1. All human behavioral traits are heritable.
2. The effect of being raised in the same family is smaller than the effect of the genes.
3. A substantial portion of the variation in complex human behavioral traits is not accounts for by the effects of genes or families.

Continue reading

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Doing Your Own Research; Body Doubles; Intellectual Laziness

  • How “doing your own research” results in absurd conspiracies about Biden body doubles;
  • Hemant Mehta tries to parse Candace Owens’ vast conspiracy theories;
  • And how objections to the Olympics opening ceremony are all about intellectual laziness.

The problem is, on the internet, you can’t tell what’s true or not, unless you pay attention and are savvy about which sources you’re looking at. The majority of people have never read newspapers or even watched the nightly network news on TV, but most of them now have internet and social media access. So people don’t understand the difference between credible sources and sources telling them what they want to believe. It’s been a problem for two decades, and it’s getting worse.

AlterNet, Roxanne Cooper, 27 Jul 2024: Opinion | The problem with ‘doing your own research’: Arizona conspiracy theory edition

Continue reading

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Steven Pinker: THE BLANK SLATE, post 8

This time: Gender. Are there innate differences between the sexes, or not? What does denial of the Blank Slate say about gender policies? And about rape.

Earlier posts about this book: post 1, post 2, post 3, post 4, post 5, post 6, post 7.

– – –

 
–Ch18, Gender

Pinker begins by considering the [1968] movie 2001 (as one example among many potential ones) against current reality. Among its misses was the role of women—who in the film are still secretaries and assistants. How quickly social arrangements can change. Several things caused the change in the status of women. The expanded moral circle; technological and economic progress, including lowered infant mortality; and of course feminism. Beginning with the right to vote etc with the 19th amendment, and especially changes in the 1970s with business life. Still, things have not improved in much of the world.

Continue reading

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Nostalgia, Weird Ideas, Joy vs Grimness, Prayers

  • Tom Nichols on how nostalgia for the past tells us lies;
  • More on JD Vance’s tribal morality and short-term thinking;
  • Robert Reich on Kamala’s joy and Donald’s grimness;
  • And the meaning of why Trump rallies open with Christian prayers.
——

Tom Nichols.

The Atlantic, Tom Nichols, 26 Jul 2024: The Lies Nostalgia Tells Us, subtitled “I was a child in the 1960s, and those days weren’t better—but in one way, they were sweeter.”

Before reading this: Continue reading

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Steven Pinker: THE BLANK SLATE, post 7

Today: Violence. Are humans inherently violent? Is war inevitable? Or is violence learned behavior? This chapter, of course, anticipates Pinker’s later book, THE BETTER ANGELS OF OUR NATURE, which documents how violence has *declined* throughout human history, though that’s a different topic.

Earlier posts about this book: post 1, post 2, post 3, post 4, post 5, post 6.

– – –

 

–Ch17, Violence

So is war eternal and inevitable? Churchill quote. The archaeological record supports the idea. Even cannibalism. And so on. Cruelty. Christians and their crosses. Efforts to reduce violence have led to legislation, as if violence has nothing to do with human nature but is taught by culture, or endemic to certain environments. The Seville Statement again. Claims that we ‘know’ what causes violence. Violence is a learned behavior, many claim. Learned from TV shows and video games. Or from childhood abuse. Another theory is about the American conception of maleness. And the frontier culture.

Continue reading

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